- Russian missile and drone attacks are getting more intense, a new study has found.
- Russia has recently stepped up its attacks and degraded Ukraine’s electricity production.
- The US must do more to rein in countries that supply Russia’s arsenal, experts said.
To understand the amount of firepower Russia has unleashed on Ukraine, consider these numbers:
An average of 23 attack missiles and drones per day hit Ukraine between September 2022 and September 2024. These attacks involved 36 different models of missiles and drones, including Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-59 cruise missiles and Shahed kamikaze drones manufactured by Iran. The figures do not include the numerous attacks by small drones. These weapons are by no means limited to military targets. Among the destroyed buildings far from the front line are hospitals, apartment complexes and a military academy filled with cadets.
Russian attacks have become more ferocious since Russia invaded in February 2022, according to the study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. In April 2023, 117 missiles were launched into Ukraine. In August 2024, this number increased by a factor of 10 to 1,110 missiles.
Using open-source data, including a Ukrainian analyst who compiled a database of Russian attacks, CSIS focused on Russian “firepower attacks,” a concept being developed in the Russian, Chinese and U.S. militaries in which multiple types of missiles and drones combine for maximum. effect. In addition to saturating Ukraine’s air defense network, Russia launched these weapons from multiple locations and directions to confuse defenders.
This relentless bombing has not enabled Russia to defeat Ukraine, nor has it terrorized the Ukrainian public into submission as the Russian leader has demanded. But it has caused great damage. Attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have knocked out two-thirds of the country’s electricity generation capacity, crushing output and leaving many Ukrainians shivering in the winter cold.
Assessments of Russian missile strikes and Ukrainian wiretapping should be treated with caution. “These are the officially reported numbers of Ukraine,” Yasir Atalan, a researcher at CSIS’s Futures Lab, told Business Insider. “So any conclusion should be based on that.”
However, there is a wide variation in the intensity of Russian attacks that appear to vary according to Moscow’s priorities. April 2023 saw an average of just 10 rockets per day. In August 2024, this number increased to 35 per day. “There were 17 days during the study period when missile launches exceeded 82 missiles on a single day,” CSIS said. “These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives, or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of heightened conflict intensity.”
From October 2022 to December 2022, daily rocket attacks increased from an average of 22 per day to 33. “Although high, the levels are likely to be less than Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza and salvos imply Iranians targeting Israel for modern firepower attacks,” CSIS said. “Moscow was either trying to keep Ukrainian infrastructure it thought it could capture intact or was prevented by covert actions — or bad logistics and targeting — from unleashing its full arsenal.”
Between December 2023 and March 2024 between 26 and 29 rockets were seen per day. “These sustained high levels correspond to an attempt by Russia to destroy critical Ukrainian infrastructure as a means of pressuring Kiev to end the conflict,” CSIS said.
August 2024 was the most active month in the study, with an average of 36 rockets per day for a total of 1,110 rockets. However, September 2024 had only 12 missiles per day, “indicating a temporary lull in missile activities associated with either low reserves or long-range Ukrainian strikes.”
If there is any good news here, it is that Ukraine has achieved surprising success in stopping Russian missile and drone attacks when it has been well equipped with Western air defenses such as the Patriot and NASAMS. The average daily interception rate is almost 84%, although Atalan noted that this number includes drones as well as missiles.
These numbers suggest several key factors, CSIS concluded. One is the importance of Russia’s allies in replenishing its missile and drone arsenals. “Averaging over 23 missiles fired daily over nearly two years indicates a high level of sustained military capabilities in Moscow and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea and China. The United States and its partners must do more to curb these regimes’ ability to replenish Russia’s arsenal.”
Ukraine’s success in intercepting Russian missiles suggests that its mix of Western-supplied and Russian-designed air defense systems are capable of providing an effective missile defense capability. “Maintaining this high level of wiretapping will require continued Western support for Ukraine,” CSIS said.
Because missile attacks increase when Russian ground troops launch major offensives, early warning of Russian offensive preparations is essential. And the fact that Russian attacks are launched from many countries, and use a mix of weapons, suggests that the solution is to increase Ukraine’s long-range bombing capability. Ukraine recently resorted to attacks on Russian ammunition depots in an attempt to reduce Russia’s firepower advantage.
“Ukraine needs the flexibility to strike several missile launch sites deep inside Russia to reduce the power of Moscow’s firepower attacks,” CSIS said.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He has a master’s degree in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him Twitter AND LinkedIn.