- Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics against the US and Europe are reaching new heights.
- Disinformation efforts are aimed at influencing elections and fomenting chaos in domestic politics.
- These efforts are being hampered in some respects.
Russian disinformation and meddling — hybrid warfare tactics — are on the rise and played out again in the US presidential election, but this is a problem for more than just America.
Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Russia was conducting “an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, directly interfering with our democracies, sabotaging industry and committing violence,” echoed longstanding concerns.
Russian tactics were on full display in the 2024 US presidential election. On Tuesday, various polling places in five battleground states were the targets of hoax bomb threats from Russian email domains, the FBI said. and this was only part of the Russian actions.
Georgia’s secretary of state accused Moscow of being “in bad shape,” saying “they don’t want us to have peaceful, fair and accurate elections, and if they can make us fight among ourselves, they can consider it a victory”.
The Russian Embassy in Washington denied the allegations as “malicious slander” and said that “Russia has not and does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries”, including the US, but such activities are well documented.
Increasing levels of interference
US intelligence concluded that Russia tried to sabotage Clinton’s campaign and destabilize the 2016 US election. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Experts and officials began to take serious note of efforts by Russia and other US adversaries, such as China and Iran, to disrupt US policy in 2016, and it is steadily getting worse.
“Obviously we’ve seen an increase in the scope and scale and, indeed, the kind of brazenness of Russian election interference in the information environment,” Doug Livermore, a member of the US special operations community and director of engagements at Irregular. Warfare Initiative, said Business Insider.
Hybrid warfare covers a variety of tactics, such as assassinations, espionage, cyberattacks, election interference, and disinformation, intended to undeniably affect or disrupt national security and domestic affairs.
2016 saw the growing influence of Russian bot farms and mass disinformation, while the 2020 election saw major efforts by Russia and other US enemies to incite violence and unrest, especially after then-President Donald Trump disputed the results and inspired the 6 January in the US Capitol.
A month before the 2024 election, the National Intelligence Council released a report warning that Russia, China and Iran were better equipped to influence elections and undermine confidence in the results because of lessons from 2020; the council cited a number of tactics that could be used, including cyber attacks, artificial intelligence and encouraging electoral chaos and violence.
Russia, China and Iran capitalized on the January 6 uprising to denigrate the US political system, US intelligence said. Lev Radin/Getty Images
Then on Monday, the head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said disinformation was being spread by US adversaries “at a greater level than ever before”.
The efforts were designed to instill mistrust, fear, and misunderstanding among American voters and to raise doubts about the integrity of American democracy. However, the 2024 presidential election was of particular interest to Russia because of what was on the line: US support for Ukraine, which Trump has been less supportive of.
More than an American problem
This hybrid war is a wider problem for other Western countries as well. In recent months, Russia has been accused of trying to undermine Moldova’s elections in favor of a pro-Moscow candidate, using tactics such as a vote-buying scheme, organizing transport to get Russians to vote in Moldovan missions in other countries, and cyber and fake attacks. bomb threats to voting operations abroad.
Russia was also recently accused of trying to interfere in the parliamentary elections of the Republic of Georgia, as well as elections in France, the UK, Germany and others.
The big difference between how Russia engages in hybrid warfare in the US versus some European democracies comes from the political systems that exist in those countries, Livermore said. In the US two-party system, Russia’s focuses on creating discontent within a particular party or between parties.
Moldova’s pro-EU president, Maia Sandu, won re-election despite Russian efforts to influence the election. Daniel MIHAILESCU / AFP
In European democracies, the focus on Russia often appears to be creating rifts in the way different parliamentary parties interact and form coalitions. Pro-EU or NATO groups or candidates are often targeted as well, as was the case in Moldova’s elections.
Across the board, Russia is opportunistic. “They don’t really care about the ideology of the organizations,” Livermore said, as long as it “advances the interests of the Kremlin.”
These attempts at intervention also undermine democracy in general, working in favor of autocratic governments. In the run-up to the US presidential election, Chinese state media highlighted deep divisions, dysfunction and fears of violence in the US.
For example, the state-run Beijing Daily newspaper wrote: “The US election, once considered a highlight of the so-called ‘beacon of democracy’, may now become the starting weapon of ‘social unrest’.”
Livermore said such efforts allow Russia and China to sue democracy in favor of their authoritarian governments. In particular, experts have assessed that Russia, China and Iran are increasingly moving closer together in efforts to challenge the US-led world order. North Korea, too, is right there with them.
Weakening of the intended effect
Harris’s concession speech emphasized the need for a peaceful transition of power and acceptance of the election results. Xinhua News Agency/Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images
After Trump won the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris quickly accepted. Her call for a peaceful transfer of power was echoed by President Joe Biden.
“For more than 200 years, America has conducted the greatest experiment in self-government in the history of the world,” he said, “where the people, the people vote and choose their leaders and they do it peacefully. And where in a democracy, the will of the people always prevails”.
Livermore said that because the results of this election, unlike 2020, are not being contested, it could spell failure for any hybrid warfare tactics by US adversaries in the months leading up to Inauguration Day.
He said Russia, China and Iran were likely “hoping to have a few months of chaos in the US” but that is now much less likely.
The stability of the US in the transition of power can be attributed to the lessons learned from 2020, from local and federal governments to law enforcement, how to maintain confidence in the electoral process and suppress post-election violence.