- Democrats hoped that Vice President Harris could win the White House through the blue wall.
- But once again, Donald Trump swept three key states and flipped them into the GOP column.
- Harris would have secured the presidency if he had won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Shortly after Vice President Kamala Harris began her presidential campaign, one of her first stops was in West Allis, Wisconsin. The Milwaukee suburb was a small piece of the electoral puzzle in a state where elections are decided by the narrowest of margins.
Harris made several stops in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania during her campaign. These states were part of the “blue wall,” or the group of states that all Democratic presidential candidates won between 1992 and 2012.
In 2016, Donald Trump broke through that wall, winning all three states and blocking former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from the White House. President Joe Biden in 2020 won all three states with Harris as his running mate.
This year, Harris was shut out. Trump won all three, once again securing the Oval Office.
Here’s why Harris eventually faltered in the trio of blue wall states.
Navigating a difficult path
Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, campaign in Pennsylvania. ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images
After all, Harris lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by narrow margins.
To secure the presidency, candidates must win at least 270 Electoral College votes, and Harris won 226 to Trump’s 312. She came away with 44 electoral votes, which she could have won if she had won Michigan (15 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes). ), and Wisconsin (10 votes).
Trump beat Harris in Michigan by 1.4 points (49.7% to 48.3%). According to the latest results, the president-elect won Pennsylvania by 2.1 points (50.6% to 48.5%). And in Wisconsin, Trump beat Harris by a margin of 0.9 points (49.7% to 48.8%).
These were not explosions, but even a small change was enough to give Trump the election.
Also, Harris didn’t win any other major states this year, making it mathematically impossible for her to reach 270 electoral votes after the blue wall fell and GOP-leaning states stayed true to form.
President-elect Donald Trump was a frequent visitor to Michigan during the 2024 campaign. AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Harris’ peripheral performance was not strong enough
Democrats entered the election hoping to make historic gains with suburban voters. The party believed those voters would continue to reject Trump’s brand of politics, as they did in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
However, unlike in 2020, when Biden won the suburbs by two points (50% to 48%) nationally, Trump this year won suburban voters by four points (51% to 47%), according to the exit poll conducted by Edison Research.
In the blue wall, Harris performed well in many key counties, including Oakland County, just outside Detroit; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, a wealthy county adjacent to Philadelphia; and Dane County, which includes the Wisconsin capital of Madison and surrounding areas.
But it wasn’t enough to offset Trump’s rural and urban clout, as well as his better-than-expected hold on support in critical areas like Waukesha County, Wisconsin, a suburban jurisdiction near Milwaukee, and Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a essential. swing circuit near Philadelphia. Harris also had to overcome Trump’s surge in vote share with minority voters — particularly among blacks and Latinos — which cut into her lead in many cities.
For example, Harris won Oakland County by 10 points. But Biden won it by 14 points in 2020. In a populous district filled with the kind of college-educated independents and disaffected Republicans the Harris campaign was targeting, the vice president’s margins had to be higher for him. countered Trump’s gains in places like Saginaw County, Michigan — a politically competitive jurisdiction he won this year after losing it to Biden four years ago.
Harris was also hurt by the anger over Biden’s handling of the Gaza conflict. Many Arab-American voters in Dearborn — a city outside Detroit — turned to Trump.
Harris spent considerable time campaigning throughout the blue-wall states, but her 107-day candidacy was a sprint. EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
The union vote was not united behind Harris
After Biden withdrew as the Democratic presidential nominee in late July, Harris was tasked with running a 107-day campaign. This included raising her profile and building relationships with leaders familiar with the president.
While Harris was enthusiastically supported by a host of public sector union leaders and large swaths of their membership, she also had to contend with disapproval from the Teamsters and the International Association of Firefighters. Within the latter group of unions, many rank-and-file members supported Trump, despite Biden’s hold on many of those members just four years ago.
Organized labor is central to blue-wall Democrats, and Harris’ support was not deep enough to eclipse Trump’s entries.
In Wisconsin, Trump won 51% of union households, compared to Harris’ 49%, according to Edison Research.
Harris won union households in both Michigan (58% to 40%) and Pennsylvania (54% to 45%), but it still wasn’t enough to win those states.
Harris tried to craft her economic message around the needs of working- and middle-class Americans — which included union workers — but Trump had an edge on the issue that lasted until Election Day.
According to CNN’s exit poll, the economy was the most important issue to 32% of voters, and those voters split for Trump by a landslide 80% to 19%.